Picture of explosions amid a structure fire.

If you’re reading this, you’re probably aware of the supposed threat of an Iranian attack on the west coast of America by now, identified by the FBI and supposedly communicated to local law enforcement. Some law enforcement officials claim to have not even heard the reports. The FBI declined to comment when asked for clarification…

Hmm, seems a little fishy, doesn’t it? A story gets planted about the threat of an Iranian attack, claiming to be sourced from the FBI, which the FBI refuses to comment on. Some law enforcement, supposedly looped-in on the matter, haven’t heard of any such threats. People start to worry. An air of doubt as to America’s safety begins to permeate, laying the foundation for the Trump administration to play the oldest card in the authoritarian’s playbook: the “false flag” attack.

The stage is set, and all it needs now is its players and a little pyrotechnics.

Why Here?

Ostensibly, what such a move would seek to do would be to eliminate all daylight between the official narrative and public sentiment. Essentially, eliminate the opposition by swinging public support so far in favor of the conflict that dissenters are seen as “unamerican” or “traitors.” This “rally around the flag” effect is a related dynamic that results from a strike on domestic soil, usually describing a nation embroiled in external conflict. It can be harnessed as a powerful tool for manufacturing consent for a given set of policies or actions.

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The “rally around the flag” effect is a very real phenomenon, and can be hugely beneficial for a nation at war. Strikes on any nation by an outside force, no matter how divided a nation may be fundamentally, will serve as a rallying point for nationalists seeking to consolidate power. Just look at how things are playing out within Iran: American bombs destroyed their leadership, and the Ayatollah was replaced with his son, a more strict hardliner (even compared to his theocrat father). The Iranian resistance is now fused almost entirely with the regime due to the presence of a common enemy- the United States.

A “false flag” attack- an attack staged by a regime or a third party which is blamed on the regime’s military opponent(s) despite being contrived for the regime’s benefit- is a tried and true tactic. They are often used to influence public perception and opinion in favor of one government or faction over another. In this case, a “false flag” on American soil, blamed on Iran, would be an ideal way to quell resistance, silence naysayers, create a permission structure for escalation, and- as in Iran- bring the populace and the regime closer together.

American servicemembers abroad being struck wouldn’t be jarring enough. It wouldn’t trigger the fight or flight response needed to set in motion the chain of psychological and sociological dominoes that would need to fall for the engineered tragedy to have the desired effect. The CIA has used or attempted to use false flags numerous times, including in the run-up to Maduro’s abduction from Venezuela.

Why Now?

From the perspective of the Trump regime, or the perspective of their Israeli accomplices, it would be a fast-track to manufactured consent for a war that the American public doesn’t want. Polling is only going to go in one direction from the peak support for the war, which currently sits in the mid thirties based on figures I’ve heard. One Washington Post poll released Thursday had support at ~40%. The same poll identified only 29% of the country that feels safer as a result of the war, and my estimation is that polling conducted now- released in a week or two- will show a drop in support. Overwhelmingly, though, Americans don’t even see the point of the war.

Unless a compelling case is made, public support will wane fast. The only subsection of the population that supports the war in Iran by a wide margin are the die-hard MAGA-types who are going to go down with the bloated orange ship. As a rule, wars don’t become more popular over time. Kids coming home in body bags don’t exactly inspire confidence and resolve. This could very easily be Trump’s Vietnam War, so it behooves the administration to goose the numbers a bit.

Those of us old enough to remember 9/11 will recall the fervor and bloodlust that a strike on American soil can cause, which would be of immense value to the Trump regime at a time when poll numbers are tanking, the economy is in tatters, and fuel and food prices are poised to skyrocket literally any minute now. While a legitimate attack from Iran is technically possible, the far likelier threat is from a regime that wants any and every reason to put their thumb on the scale during the run-up to the 2026 mid-term elections as their coalition and its leader approaches never-before-seen disapproval figures. A “false flag” by the Trump-Netanyahu axis would be part sinking of the USS Maine, part Reichstag fire- a way to gin up wartime fervor and consolidate authoritarian power all in one fell swoop. Could it happen in today’s America?

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**The Administration Wouldn’t Do That, Would They?**

The Iron Law of Trump is that one must never expect him not to go lower. Trump always goes lower, as if his ethical compass is in a perpetual state of entropy. I can’t think of a single pulled-punch in his ~11 years in politics, nor in his career beforehand. Too good to call Obama a secret Kenyan muslim, leading to him being branded the antichrist? Nope. Too good to start an insurrection with his chud vanguard? Nuh uh. What about when the aforementioned mob wanted to hang his VP? Threw him to the wolves- the ones he shot full of rabies and starved for a day beforehand. This is not “Trump Derangement Syndrome,” or some other thought-terminating cliche deployed by the right wing- this dude wanted to nuke hurricanes and inject bleach to cure Covid-19. This is a pattern of facts laid out very simply.

He is both malicious and moronic, and a “false flag” attack seems to me to be squarely in the realm of possibility when you account for this trend. He goes scorched-earth against his enemies, refuses to give up power willingly, and will back it all up with force- all while being reckless and not caring about anybody’s life but his own (and not even that; have you seen what he eats). So when stuff pops off, and the official narrative doesn’t line up, don’t immediately fall in line. We owe this regime nothing. Their flag is not worth rallying around, and they know it. That’s exactly why, should there be a conveniently-timed tragedy (and I sincerely hope there isn’t), support for this illegal, wasteful, bullshit war must continue to drop in spite of the regime’s best efforts. The war can’t go on without popular support as the world’s economy crumbles, so it’s important we maintain an anti-war posture- no matter what they throw at us.

Solidarity,

-Dee